According to the Washington Post, all three major election forecasting models predict the Republicans winning the six seats they need to retake the Senate majority.
The most bullish model for Republicans is Washington Post’s Election Lab, which, as of Monday morning, gives the GOP a 76% chance of winning the majority. Leo, the New York Times model, pegs it at 67% while FiveThirtyEight shows Republicans with a 60% chance. A week ago, Election Lab gave Republicans a 65% chance of winning the majority, Leo put it a 55% and FiveThirtyEight had it just under 55%.
All three models give Republicans very strong odds of winning the open seats in Montana, South Dakota and West Virginia as well as beating Sens. Mark Pryor (D-Ark.) and Mary Landrieu (D-La.). That would net Republicans five seats, one short of the number they need for the majority.
Of course, we still have time for the final push past the post, but the Top Twelve Dems to Beat are all looking vulnerable.