2016 Election, Elections, Hillary Clinton, Mitt Romney

Hillary Not a Lock to Win in 2016

12

A lot of Hillaryites in the media are spreading the message that Hillary as the next President is inevitable.

Their analysis goes something like this:

 

On Nov. 8, 2016, Clinton will start — start — with a minimum 247 of the 270 electoral votes she needs to win. If you give her Colorado and Virginia — which many political strategists would, given the Hispanic population in one and the rising influence of the northern-centered population in the other — she’ll start with 269. That means Clinton doesn’t need Ohio or Florida. She just needs one small state like Iowa, Nevada or New Hampshire to put her over the edge. And because she’s got a boatload of money and no viable primary challenger, she’ll have plenty of time and resources to lock up at least one of those states.

It sounds convincing until its assumptions are put under a microscope.  And Nate Silver of Five Thirty Eight has.

Nowadays, of course, it’s become common to hear talk about the “blue wall” — the set of 18 states that, along with the District of Columbia, have voted for the Democrat in each of the most recent six presidential elections, from 1992 through 2012. Together, they represent 242 electoral votes. Many pundits, ignoring the lessons of history, claim the “blue wall” or some close variation of it puts the Democratic nominee (likely Hillary Clinton) at a substantial advantage for 2016.

 

The error that these commentators are making is in attributing the Democrats’ recent run of success to the Electoral College. In fact, the Electoral College has been a minor factor, if it’s helped Democrats at all, and one probably best ignored until the late stages of a close presidential race.

 

So when commentators talk about the Democrats’ “blue wall,” all they’re really pointing out is that Democrats have had a pretty good run in presidential elections lately. And they have, if you conveniently draw the line at 1992 (it doesn’t sound so impressive to instead say Democrats have won five of the 12 elections since 1968). During that time, Democrats have won four elections pretty clearly, lost one narrowly and essentially tied the sixth. This has been evident from the popular vote, however. The one time the Electoral College really mattered — that was 2000, of course — it hurt the Democrats.

A quick statistical rundown of the past few elections and how the popular vote would have affected the Electoral College shows

A 3.9-point Romney victory represents a 7.8-point swing from the actual result. So if the swing were distributed uniformly, Obama would have lost every state that he won by 7.8 percentage points or less. That means he’d have lost three “blue wall” states — Minnesota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — along with Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, Ohio and Virginia.

So, for those pundits who are predicting Queen Hillary’s coronation in 2016:

But for now? The Electoral College just isn’t worth worrying about much. If you see analysts talking about the “blue wall,” all they’re really saying is that Democrats have won a bunch of presidential elections lately — an obvious fact that probably doesn’t have much predictive power for what will happen this time around.

 

I’m not saying Clinton is doomed. Rather, I think the “fundamentals” point toward her chances being about 50-50, and I wouldn’t argue vigorously if you claimed the chances were more like 60-40 in one or the other direction. But Clinton is no sort of lock, and if she loses the popular vote by even a few percentage points, the “blue wall” will seem as archaic as talk of a permanent Republican majority.

 

  • John C. ‘Buck’ Field

    Bernie Sanders.

    As a lefty, I’m fighting against Clinton because of her pro-war, pro-corporatist credentials…along with old-time conservatives who support Christian morals of caring for the poor and weak.

    Her media consultants want her to look populist, but in Old Testament terms: she’s on the side of the Pharaoh. New Testament? The money-changers.

  • Kenneth Fichtl

    You don’t have to worry about Billary Baby Barack is not leaving office.

  • dan9el

    Hillary Clinton doomed?…..perhaps…,all depends on certain factors.

    • bobtherebuilder

      Yeah like common friggin’ sense!!!

      • dan9el

        Allow me to educate you briefly,…just walk with me if you will, and pay attention.

        Well, Hillary Clinton has to overcome certain ‘dark pages’ in her road to presidency….if the lady really wants to go for that.

        Forget about The Benghazi incident for a moment ,…let’s go to some other times in her history as politicians….certain associations,….let’s go there.

        Ah!….. Hillary Clinton and ‘secret deals’. Well, actually the lady has a lot of ‘secret deals’ all over,….let’s take a rapid look at just few of those, shall we?Hillary Clinton and Islamic–muslim jihaddists terrorist web deals,….just a brief expose’;….

        Hillary Clinton is a very colourful public figure,…and since she is virtually at front page in media outlets of all kind,…. let’s take a quick look at a small section of her political paradigm .

        Hillary Clinton will never give answers to anything, for the attitude of “what difference does it make?” is going to resonate in all her statements,….in others words she does not give a dime about the American people ,….all what she seems to want is power,and nothing else.

        Very well, let’s be brief,…. for so much had been said – and much more can be said – about the lady (Ms Hillary Clinton);…so let’ s take a quick look at just a thing or two.

        Saleha Mahmood Abedin, the mother of Hillary Clinton’s chief of staff, reportedly served in the women’s division of the Muslim Brotherhood alongside the wife of Egypt’s new president,the Brotherhood’s Mohammed Mursi.
        ( a net-link is suppose to be here, actually, more than one,… but is/are not)

        It was apparent to her (and the majority of Americans) that the Obama administration has been coddling the Muslim Brotherhood and Muslim “outreach” groups since Day One (the Obama administration has also had hundreds of secret meetings with the terrorist-linked CAIR).
        ( another net-links are suppose to be here, but are not)

        Aide Huma Abedin’s Extensive Ties to Islamic Radicals and Terrorists

        Clinton Aide Huma Abedin’s Extensive Ties to Islamic Radicals and Terrorists
        ( a set of net-links are suppose to be here, …but they are not)

        Clinton Aide Huma Abedin’s Extensive Ties to Islamic Radicals and Terrorists
        ( another net-link is suppose to be here, but is not)

        Abedin represented a Muslim charity known to have spawned terror groups, ncluding one declared by the U.S. government to be an official al-Qaida front.
        ( a net-link is suppose to be here, but is not)

        Walid Shoebat is the son of an American mother and a Palestinian Arab father. He was raised as a Muslim and eventually became a militant involved in terrorism. He spent time in a Jerusalem jail and planted a bomb in Bethlehem. In 1978, his parents sent him to the US where he went to school in Chicago.

        While in Chicago, he got involved with Jamal Said, an imam at one of the largest mosques in Chicago and founder of the Islamic Association of Palestine, which many consider to be a forerunner to today’s terrorist organization known as Hamas.

        Shoebat was heavily involved in Jihadist activities in the United States and says that he was willing to die for the Muslim cause. However, in 1994, Shoebat converted to Christianity and gave up his Muslim militantism. Today, he spends his time watching and reporting dangers and concerns he sees connected with the Muslim world.In one of his recent posts,

        Shoebat revealed a close connection of US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to the Muslim Brotherhood which just took control of Egypt. In his report, Clinton’s closest advisor is her Deputy Chief of Staff Huma Abedin.

        A year ago, Shoebat learned about the women leadership of the Muslim Sisterhood, which is the female version of the Muslim Brotherhood. Among the 63 names of Muslim women leaders was the name Saleha Mahmoud Abedin, the mother of Clinton’s advisor Huma Abedin.
        ( few some more net-links are suppose to be here, but they are not)

        And so , there you have a thing or two,….just a small fraction of Hillary Clinton reality.

        Now, here is the thing;….
        Should I try to provide proof / net-link of irrevocable nature about this or about any other topic here is this site?….it will be put on…”pending” / ” to be review” / “waiting for moderation”….by this blog site….and eventually will never be posted, for this site here seems to be another helper / worshiper of Mr Obama and his associates and will never let pass anything that gives reliable / real information to the American public or the rest of the world, for that matter.

        It is a way of protect the current rogue administration now in Washington….in others words, constitutional freedom of speech here is = ZERO / ZIP / nada,

        However, there are many others blog-sites where this writing can be see entirely, for in those sites honor constitutional free speech still exist,….and in there,…. in those, I do write with freedom….but here?……well, you do know.

        Are we all clear on this?

        Input anyone? Opinions welcome.

        • bobtherebuilder

          You’re “preachin’ to the choir” here dan, or did you miss what I was getting at?! I KNOW this corrupt windbag is, and always has been, and always will be a LIAR, and has an EXTREMELY “checkered” past, littered with misdeeds, lies, purgery, bribery, misconduct, not to mention the infamous “Clinton Body Bags”!!
          As I have stated previously, it is unfathomable to any logical, rational mind, how this witch is NOT sitting a a cell, rather than “On the campaign trail”!!!!

          • dan9el

            Very well.

  • uchsamin

    “Not a lock to win”,….hello,……DON’T PEOPLE UNDERSTAND SHE SHOULD BE LOCKED UP?
    Then execute her for TREASON, UGLINESS, AND BEING A LESBIAN.

  • dan9el

    Let’s be real on this, shall we?
    The GOP has just an internal battle for power, and nothing else….the wellness for the american public is the least of their concern.

    They try to talk like conservatives , in reality they are not;….they sound like conservatives,….they are saying the words – they know – the amercan people wants to hear…and so they talk in order to get votes.

    So far nobody from the so called republican-conservative group (the ones that sounds like a conservative)…no body is reliable , absolutely nobody,…the real people advocate is not in sight yet….but a number of electorates out there start swallowing what is served by the GOP…..pity.

    One thing is crystal clear, the GOP does not have anyone to win over Hillary Clinton, for what the rancid sold-out establishment organization is offering to the american public is just nothing…..potential presidential republican contenders are just a bunch of RINOs….are they not?

    Let’s consider this; If…(a really BIG ‘IF’),…should all-American patriot-core belong in the Tea Party Movement manage ( and certainly we can) manage to clean the GOP of the ongoing mega-corruption?…. then when the real people candidate emerges,…with fundamental conservative spectrum on fiscal responsibility,… small government,… strong national defense /security, ….zero-tolerance for enemies abroad and domestic as well,…presenting a plan on realistic economy restoration,…and real listening to the everyday / regular Jean and Joe , out here.

    If that happens,… we can very well start the restoration of what is lost, so far (which is a big chunk)….we can start the restoration of our great country .

    If that does not happens,… and another / similar un-American / Islamic-muslim terrorist-friendly oriented individual assumes the presidential platform (ill-acquired by Mr Barck Obama)…we, definitely , will loose our country – as once we know it – forever.

    And that one could be;…Hillary Clinton,…or John Kerry,…or Susan Rice,…or Elizabeth Warren,…or Jarrett,…or,… Schumer,…or Biden,….or Van Jones,….anyone from the liberal-democrat unconstitutional / anti-American sector.

    And so, if that event comes into effect ?….whoever may be, will give the final mortal punch to our country and that is the end.

    Are we all clear on this?

    • Rustytruck

      If we lose out to another worthless democratic hollow-head, it just might wake up the people and the next revolution will commence. This is what I see, most are too complacent in their lives to make any ripples until it’s all gone, at which point they will stand around totally baffled as why, but then they should wake up and get really pissed. Total chaos before any regrouping, and half of the country will be dead from all the riots and govt. attempt at control. It’s going to turn into one of the worst 3rd world cesspools to exist. Americans have lived with so much of everything for so long they will never believe it to happen until it’s too late. How can the stores be out of food? It doesn’t make any sense, then the ugliness will appear and still they won’t believe it to be a permanent thing. Almost a century back was the last time, but they were used to doing without at that time Dan. At least some of us can see the writing on the wall, even if we’ll never be able to stop it or maybe survive it. Their complacency has killed us, it’s just not being seen by them yet.
      The only thing that might have saved us from it would’ve been all these govt. handouts to never been available. When they all have to go out and work for or find food for themselves their complacency might never had set in, too busy working and hunting to take on this type of laziness, (different word for complacency). You can see it in the really poor countries, they don’t have the time or money to play any govt. games like waiting in line for handouts. I never seen people there worrying about this stuff, they’re just trying to stay alive and feed their own kids.
      Sorry I went on so long Dan, I seen you as one of the few who sees it coming and had to jump in, I guess to say, “Dan here is right, he sees it coming too.” Really sad isn’t it? May God bless you and your family Pal, best wishes.

      • dan9el

        Your assessment, far from ongoing and impending to be reality, is not.

        Clearly dynamics you see, indeed.

        However, although much is lost thorough these long six and plus years….hope perhaps still exist.

        And as for this, RE ;- [ God bless you and your family Pal, best wishes.]

        Thanks,…likewise.
        Respectfully, dan9el

  • Dennis B Anderson

    Whats wrong with Hitler-y?? Whats right with her?? She and her husband should be wearing orange jump suits and floppers for brokering our uranium to Russia. whats wrong with you people??? They should be hung immediately to let the world were not going to take this kind of government anymore its phony. Hey Hitler-y we know what that restart button was it is a detonator for a Iranian nuclear bomb attatched to a russian ICBM. Its time to die.

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