Political guru Dick Morris has looked at the playing field for the U.S. Senate in 2016 and believes the GOP has a path to maintaining control of the upper legislative body.
Most observers believe the Democrats have the upper hand in the 2016 Senate battle for the same reasons the GOP was favored in 2014. There will be more GOP seats on the line than Democrat seats in 2016.
He goes through state by state the emerging political battlefields and the prognosis for each side:
Indiana: one of the two states where a vacant seat is attracting Democratic interest, is a solidly Republican state. Carried by Mitt Romney in the 2012 presidential race, it only elected a Democratic senator that year because Richard Mourdock, the Republican Senate nominee, called a pregnancy stemming from a rape “something that God intended.” Barring such self-immolation, there is no reason not to believe the Republicans will hold Coats’s seat.
Florida: President Obama beat Romney in the Sunshine State by only 0.9 percent of the vote, the smallest margin of victory for the president in any state. Republican Gov. Rick Scott won reelection two years later by only 1.1 percent. Florida could go either way.
Nevada: Republican Brian Sandoval won the governorship in 2010, defeating Rory Reid — Harry’s son — by 53 percent to 42 percent. In 2014, he was reelected with 71 percent of the vote. While Obama carried the state in both elections, Nevadans in 2012 elected Republican Dean Heller to the Senate, albeit by only 1.2 percent of the vote.
Illinois: Republican Sen. Mark Kirk is handicapped by the possible lingering effects of a stroke he suffered early in his tenure. Kirk’s efforts to sanction Iran, however, give him a great issue to take into the election. Still, Illinois is a quintessentially Democratic state and could revert to form in 2016.
Colorado: Michael Bennet, the surprise winner of a tight race in 2010, is up for reelection. Having won by only 1.7 percent, despite a terribly flawed campaign by Tea Party favorite Republican Ken Buck, Bennet should be in Republican crosshairs this year. Sen. Cory Gardner’s (R-Colo.) upset win in 2014 and two Republican gains in the House in 2010 could indicate a swing to the right in this formerly reliable Republican state.
Washington: Sen. Patty Murray (D) survived a strong challenge from Republican Dino Rossi, with 52 percent to 48 percent. In the two weeks before the 2010 election, Rossi was running even or slightly ahead of Murray, forcing her to turn to slashing negative ads in the final days. Rossi, ineptly, failed to answer the attacks, and they did their damage. But Murray is no shoo-in this time around.
Wisconsin: Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) seeks to turn back a challenge from Russ Feingold, whom he defeated in 2010 by 5 points. With Gov. Scott Walker’s increasingly successful runs in the state and Johnson’s record as senator, it is hard to see Wisconsin electing Feingold.
Ohio: Sen. Rob Portman (R-Ohio), elected in 2010 with 57 percent of the vote, faces former Gov. Ted Strickland, who lost to Gov. John Kasich by 2 points in 2010. Portman should be able to keep his seat.