2016 Election, Donald Trump, Elections

Why the establishment fears Trump

13

Critics of a Donald Trump presidential candidacy have made two separate, contradictory claims regarding his electability in the 2016 general election for president.

First, that if he is nominated by the Republican Party, he would repel too many Independents, and lose handily in a general election. Second, that if he is not nominated, and instead runs as an Independent, he would siphon off too many Independents, costing the Republican candidate the election.

How can both be true? Either, Trump has broad appeal to Independents, which could fuel a third party run, or he does not.

Let us assume the latter conventional wisdom, that if Trump were to run as an Independent, it would splinter the vote, dramatically increasing the odds that the Democrat nominee would win. For this to be true, he would have to attract enough Independents to his campaign to steal votes from one or both of the major parties.

Ross Perot did that in 1992, garnering 19.7 million votes in the general election. Let’s leave aside the question of whether this actually cost George H. W. Bush the election, a debatable topic. Roughly half of Perot supporters were voters who otherwise might not have voted in the election. How do we know that?

Voter turnout exploded in 1992 by nearly 13 million to 104.4 million, a 12.27 percent increase from 1988. All that while the growth of the voting age population was slowing down — it had only increased 6.7 million that cycle.

In addition to Perot’s 19.7 million votes, Democrats increased their 1988 vote total by 3.1 million to 44.9 million, while Republicans lost 9.7 million supporters down to 39.1 million.

H. Ross Perot

H. Ross Perot

Meaning, Perot’s presence in the race may have brought as many as 5 to 10 million voters to the polls who would have stayed home if he were not in the race. He expanded the voter universe.

Besides the dramatic growth of the national debt, Ross Perot’s big issue in 1992 was being against the pending North American Free Trade Agreement. Trump’s big issue besides illegal immigration is trade, as he led the opposition to granting trade authority to President Barack Obama to negotiate the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Both are economic populists.

Only two other times in modern electoral history has there been such a marked increase in voter turnout exceeding the growth rate of the voting age population at a time when the population growth rate was slowing. In 1984 and 2008, when Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama, respectively, increased their party’s voting bases and, thus, overall voter turnout substantially.

In 2000 and 2004, the growth of voter turnout also exceeded the growth rate of the voting age population, but that occurred at times when the voting age population was surging. That said, the George W. Bush campaigns were highly successful at increasing the number of Republicans. In fact, Republican voter identification peaked in 2004 at 39 percent, according to Gallup.

The trouble for Republicans is that it has sunk ever since, down to 23 percent in July. Independents, on the other hand, have risen markedly to near an all-time high at 46 percent of voters.

What emerges is a Republican Party that is — or should be — desperate to increase its numbers with unaffiliated voters after getting drubbed in 2008 and 2012. In fact, Republicans still have not been able to surpass George W. Bush’s 62 million vote total in 2004.

The question with Trump — and every other GOP candidate — is if that person will build the voter base of the party, without which Republicans cannot hope to win in 2016. A key question may be whether they bring the Ross Perot voters home.

A hint could come in a recent Rasmussen poll, which found a full 36 percent of Republicans, 33 percent of independents and 19 percent of Democrats say they would support Trump — even if he ran third party. His threat to run as an Independent notwithstanding, that is not a bad place to start.

Perhaps what the party’s establishment fears the most, then, is that either as a Republican or an Independent, Trump could actually win. And they can’t control him.

This is a guest post by Robert Romano senior editor of Americans for Limited Government.

 

  • luckeybob

    The Republican base, or rather the DNC and Pacs, are GUMPS. They epitomize “Stupid is as stupid does”. For example, they have CONSTANTLY attacked the Tea Party and still do even after Tea Party candidates won Senate and House seats. Instead of working out an accommodation with them and not publicly attack them for their conservative views, they instead proclaim themselves (AFTER the election),as being conservative and go on to act on their non-conservative policies . Well, as Reagan would say, they think we TRUE conservatives are damaging the Republican stance. What Gumps they are. Now they are doing the same scrap with Trump. They don’t hear or listen or understand what the people (which includes ALL the different groups) are telling them. The base is only interested in what their big donors want. Not us voters. No bucks ? then screw you. We are not interested unless you contribute six figures or more.

  • steven

    Trump can’t be bought like a cheap suit and that scares the the hell out of them!

    • roy paul shields

      You have that right steven. Trump is the only one from both parties that can save America. The rest of them talk the same old political snake oil. If you are truely an American and want to save America?? Vote Donald Trump. GOD BLESS AMERICA

      • Mac Boy

        SEMPER FI !!!

        • Jarhead

          TRUMP
          TERM LIMITS
          TIGHT BORDERS
          TRAITORS IN GITMO
          TRUTH

  • jlcham

    If he has appeal to independents, I would think the GOP would want him to help bolster their numbers. Unless they don’t like the fact that he is telling it like it is and embarrassing the establishment. They might have to live up to what he says because the POLLS show he is the one most real Americans want.

  • libs are mental

    I just read where Jeb Bush was on a Bloomberg board,with the Sierra club. Their sole purpose was to shut down coal industry! !

  • Mac Boy

    Trump is going to SMASH the Dems & Rino’s —–
    Hillary is Dust ………

  • Robert Shearer

    Trump needs to dial back what he is saying. Many of the people I have talked to says he has hoof in mouth disease. What he is currently doing will alienate much of the electorate and could cause him the election. I agree with him that the status quo is not working and that Political Correctness is a non-starter!! I have always said say what you mean and mean what you say. Do you want me to tell you the truth or what you want to hear they are seldom the same!! We need someone to shake up and reduce the size of the Government as things are currently going the government is going to DESTROY the UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.

  • roy paul shields

    Maybe it is time for a third party; Why??? The democrats have allowed the rag head in the oval and his political co conspirators to methodically destroy America for the past 6+ years. The republicans gained the muscle in the white house the last election two years ago and proven to be nothing but a bunch of gutless politicians drawing big pay checks for doing nothing!!! Trump is not a linguist or a silver tongued politician trying to sell America snake oil. Every politician in the white house is there because of someone elses money!! Trump is campagning with his money.
    The republican party has a winner in Donald Trump; But they as are the democrats are afraid of him!! Why?? He is campagning on his own money and the political machine can’t buy him. He is a tremendously successful business man. Our government is big business being run by a bunch of wannabes that seemingly don’t know their *sses from a hole in the ground when it comes to business. Trump “IS NOT AGAINST IMMIGRATION”. He is against an open border allowing the worst of Mexico and south American countries to stream across the border at will. He has outlined how he will attack our out of control national debt. His self interest if you would call it that is making America strong again.
    He is a extremely successful American that loves America He will definately eliminate wanna be politicians doing nothing but drawing big pay checks and allowing America to be shredded by those in the white house that should be tried as traitors. If you want to save America there is only one among all of the wanna be presidential hopeful that can get America out of debt; Put more Americans to work; Make America a world power house again. Protect our military and strengthen our national security Vote Donald Trump and save America. Semper Fi. 51-56 GOD BLESS AMERICA

  • jerry1944

    That is the Rep fault they have sunk each year . they no longer even try to be conservatives and have even said they dont want conservatives are tea Party ppl with them. Mitch even sent his mods down to Miss. to buy dem vote for there mod to make sure the conservative didnt win I cant see me voting for there mod since they dont want me in there party That why i have had to vote 3rd party the past 2 pres election I will no longer hole my nose to vote for there mod they love to run

  • DAVID

    that’s right we don’t need another p.o.s. like obama who answers to people who support their campainge we need an independent thinker who owes no allegiance to a certain group or is controlled by the democreeps or the republicans their about useless too,trump tells the truth and puts it out there and doesn’t back down that’s what we need because the government and this so called president are all a bunch of corrupt bags of crap he gets elected and he will not support their private agenda’s and that scares the crap out of all of the crooked bastards.

  • O’REILLY BRINGS ON BERNIE GOLDBERG TO STOMP TRUMP. OAN HAS LESS COMMERCIALS.

    PLAYING JUDAS IN THE FIXED NEWS PASSION PLAY O’REILLY BRINGS ON FRANK LUNTZ JR AKA BERNIE GOLDBERG. SURE ENOUGH FIX NEWS WILL NOT GIVE UP THEIR JIHAD AGAINST TRUMP. IN CLOSING SLIMEBALL SAYS (I LOVE THESE BACKSTABBERS) I KNOW DONALD TRUMP HE IS A GREAT GUY. I HAVE INTERVIEWED HIM MANY TIMES. NOT ONCE DID HE EVER TREAT ME LIKE MONICA LEWINSKI (ONLY FOOLING). GET READY HERE COMES THE JAVELIN BUT HIS EGO IS TOO BIG FOR THE WHITE HOUSE. O’REILLY HOLDS UP HIS PONTIUS PILATE FINGER BOWL AND SMILES. LOOK MY HANDS ARE CLEAN. MY FINGER PRINTS ARE NOT ON THE KNIFE.. TRUMP’S EGO WILL REPLACE THE COMMUNIST EGO THAT IS TAKING DOWN AMERICA WITH THE HELP OF FIFTH COLUMNISTS LIKE FIX NEWS. I’LL TAKE A BIG EGO AMERICAN OVER A BIG EGO COMMUNIST ANY DAY OF THE WEEK. TRUMP SIGNALS THE END OF THE QUISLING EMPIRE.

    THE PEOPLE KNOW IT. RIGHT NOW HE IS AT 25%. ALL THE PEOPLE CAN SEE IS A GREAT WALL AND A SAFE COUNTRY. MANY ARE HOLDING BACK THEIR SUPPORT BECAUSE HE IS TOO GOOD TO BE TRUE. BUT NOT REALLY. HE LIKES HIS CITY. HE DOES NOT LIKE HIS REAL ESTATE THREATENED BY NUKES FROM CUBA. FIRED BY RUSSIAN CHINESE AND IRANIAN SHIPS IN THE OBAMA GITMO GIFT TO COMMUNISM. THE FLAG BURNING PARTY OF DEATH TO LITTLE CHILDREN HAS NO WINNERS. THE ONLY WAY THEY WILL STAY IN POWER THEY WILL HAVE TO HAVE A RIGGED VOTE STALINIST ELECTION. IF YOU SEE THE BALLOTS GOING TO GEORGE SOROS HOUSE OR HITLERYS BATHROOM WHERE SHE KEEPS THE NATIONAL SERVER. THAT IS THE ONLY WAY THEY CAN STEAL THE ELECTION.

    TRUMP’S NEW VEHICLE SHOULD BE A STEAM ROLLER. NO MATTER HOW HARD FIX NEWS TRIES TO STEM THE AMERICAN TIDE. IT IS TOO LATE ALREADY. AFTER THE NEXT DEBATE HE WILL PICK UP ANOTHER 25% AND THEN THE GREAT AGAIN AMERICAN RACE IS ON. ALL YOU LOOTING POLITICIANS START READING THE WANT ADS. BECAUSE YOUR’E FIRED.

    VIVA EL TRUMPO, VIVA CHRISTO REY, VIVA TIM TEBO, GO EAGLES. VIVA CRUZ, VIVA CARSON.. THE SPIRIT OF AMERICA PARTY RADIO SHOW. ON TUNE IN RADIO. WE BE TALKING.

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