Oct. 07– COLUMBUS — Gov. John Kasich has surrendered his presidential campaign lead among Ohio Republicans, and Hillary Clinton continues to see her lead among Democrats fade, according to a Quinnipiac Poll released today.
Mr. Kasich, at 13 percent, dropped to third among registered Ohio voters, now trailing billionaire Donald Trump, at 23 percent, and neurosurgeon Ben Carson, at 18 percent. It’s the latest bad news for the Kasich campaign, who has also dropped in recent polls in the critically important early primary state of New Hampshire, and who has struggled to climb in national polls.
“Gov. John Kasich’s big card was his enormous popularity in Ohio, generally considered the most important swing state in the November election,” said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Poll. “But with Trump zooming well past him in the Buckeye State and Kasich’s numbers in Florida and Pennsylvania in low single digits, the Ohio governor’s campaign is going in the wrong direction.”
Mr. Kasich registers at just 2 percent and 3 percent respectively among Florida and Pennsylvania Republicans, roughly the level he has seen in national polls.
Ms. Clinton leads among Ohio Democrats with 40 percent, still outside the poll’s margin of error, but the still undeclared candidacy of Vice President Joe Biden has surged to 21 percent. Mr. Biden has passed Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders as the former secretary of state’s chief rival for the Buckeye vote. Mr. Sanders is at 19 percent.
Despite her strong negatives among voters, just 14 percent of Democrats questioned said they would not vote for her.
Mr. Biden also does as well if not better than Ms. Clinton in hypothetitcal general election match-ups. The poll suggests he would beatMr. Trump, Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, former Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, but would lose in a close race to Mr. Carson.
The only one of those that Ms. Clinton clearly bests in Ohio at this stage more than a year from the 2016 general election would beMr. Trump.who also has a poor favorability rating among voters with 29 percent of Republicans saying they would “definitely not support” him.
But despite those numbers, he now leads Republicans in all three of the swing states surveyed– Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania.
“Those who were waiting for Donald Trump’s campaign to collapse will need to wait longer–at least in the three states of Ohio, Florida, and Pennsylvania,” Mr. Brown said.
The Ohio portion of the poll, conducted between Sept. 25 and Oct. 5, questioned 1,180 voters overall and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points. The Republican portion, involving 433 questioned, and the Democratic portion, with 396, had margins of error of plus or minus 4.7 and 4.9 points respectively.
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