2016 Election, Elections

Latest FAU Poll Has Trump Lapping the Field in Florida as Clinton Trails in Matchups with GOP Frontrunners


214770LOGOBOCA RATON, Fla., Nov. 18, 2015 /PRNewswire-USNewswire/ — Donald Trump has doubled the votes of his nearest challenger in Florida, where Hillary Clinton trails in matchups with several GOP frontrunners, according to a new poll by the Florida Atlantic University Business and Economics Polling Initiative (FAU BEPI).

The survey was conducted in Florida from Nov. 15-16, immediately following the latest Democratic debate.

Trump leads the GOP field with 36 percent, followed by Marco Rubio at 18 percent, Ben Carson at 15 percent and Ted Cruz at 10 percent. Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush placed fifth with just 8.9 percent, down more than two points from BEPI’s poll in September when he took 11.3 percent of the vote in Florida.

“Despite conjecture that Donald Trump has plateaued, his support in Florida remains very strong and could be growing,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., associate professor of political science at FAU and a research fellow of the Initiative.

While Clinton holds a 43-point lead (65.5 percent to 22.4 percent) over Bernie Sanders on the Democratic side, she continues to trail in head-to-head matchups with the GOP frontrunners, with Carson holding the biggest margin at 9.7 points (50.2 percent to 40.5 percent). Trump leads Clinton by 8.7 points (49.2 percent to 40.5 percent).

“While Clinton is losing in all the trial heats, she is winning among females,” said Monica Escaleras, Ph.D., director of the BEPI. “Thus it appears that her strategy of targeting women is working.”

Regardless of their poll numbers, the favorability ratings for many of the candidates are low. Trump has a favorable rating of just 41 percent among all voters, while 51 percent have an unfavorable impression of him. Clinton also suffers from negative name recognition, with 41 percent of all voters giving her a favorable rating, compared with 54 percent saying they have an unfavorable impression of her.

The polling sample for the Democratic and the Republican primary consisted of 297 and 355 likely Florida voters, respectively, with a margin of error of +/-5.6 percent and +/-5.2 percent at a 95 percent confidence level. The General Election Sample consisted of 829 registered voters with a margin of error of +/-3.3 percent and a 95 percent confidence level.

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SOURCE FAU Business and Economics Polling Institute


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