Thanks to Ted Cruz’s victory in Wisconsin, it’s now all but impossible for Donald Trump to reach the required 1,237 delegates required to secure the Republican nomination. The only question is how many he’ll fall short:
Trump currently leads the GOP field with 743 delegates. He would need to win 58.9 percent of the remaining pledged delegates to obtain the simple majority necessary.
A number of the states remaining award delegates proportionally. The bulk of delegates in one critical upcoming state, Pennsylvania, aren’t officially bound to any candidate. The fight for California’s massive 172 delegates will be fought largely in each of the state’s 54 Congressional Districts.
As a result, Breitbart News estimates that Donald Trump will end the primary portion of the nomination fight with 1164 delegates, 74 short of the 1,237 delegates necessary to win the nomination on the first ballot. This estimate assumes Trump’s performance in upcoming contests is consistent with the results prior to Wisconsin.
It’s notable that this estimation is coming from Breitbart, an outlet that defended Trump over one of their own reporters. See how they break down each upcoming primary race, and come to their projected 1,164 delegates, here.