According to a new poll, Donald Trump has a commanding 34-point lead in his home state of New York, but his support is down from the same survey taken in March:
An Emerson College Polling Society survey released Friday found Trump taking 56 percent support, followed by Cruz at 22 percent and John Kasich at 17 percent.
However, there are warning signs for Trump in the poll.
He has fallen 8 points from the same survey released in mid-March, while Cruz has gained 10 and Kasich has picked up 16. In the previous poll, Trump was at 64 percent support, followed by Cruz at 12, Marco Rubio at 4, and Kasich at 1.
There are 95 delegates up for grabs in New York on April 19, the second largest prize still available behind California. However, Trump could very well end up splitting the pot:
Trump is almost certain to win the 14 delegates that will be bound to the statewide winner.
But the rest of the 81 delegates will be allocated at the Congressional district level. If Trump can top 50 percent in each district, it would turn New York into a winner-take-all for him.
The Emerson survey said Trump is certain to pass the 50 percent mark in 5 of the 27 districts. In 11 others, he “stands a good chance” of surpassing that threshold. There are four districts where Trump is leading but could have to split the delegate haul, and only seven districts where Cruz is competing to win.
Whether Trump achieves a clean sweep in New York, his current standing makes it highly likely that at the very least he’ll take a strong majority of delegates.
However, the same survey shows that Hillary Clinton would trounce Trump in New York in the general election, 54 percent to 36.