Sen. Ted Cruz proved in Wisconsin that his impact isn’t limited to caucus states and states with large proportions of evangelical Christians. Indeed, if he can win a handful of key primary states, he can keep Donald Trump from reaching the 1,237 delegates required to clinch the nomination.
That being said, the remaining 16 primaries are as follows.
- April 19: New York, 95 delegates
- April 26: Connecticut (28 delegates), Delaware (16 delegates), Rhode Island (19 delegates), Maryland (38 delegates), Pennsylvania (71 delegates)
- May 3: Indiana (57 delegates)
- May 10: Nebraska (36 delegates), West Virginia (34 delegates)
- May 17: Oregon (28 delegates)
- May 24: Washington (44 delegates)
- June 7: New Mexico (24 delegates), New Jersey (51 delegates), South Dakota (29 delegates), Montana (27 delegates), California (172 delegates)
It’s impossible to say exactly how many delegates Trump will walk away with, but he’s expected to clean up on the East Coast — although it’s a very real possibility that he’ll split the delegate prizes in his home state of New York; Connecticut; Rhode Island; and Pennsylvania. He’s favored to win the winner-take-all states of Delaware and New Jersey and the vast majority of Maryland.
Cruz, on the other hand, will hope to draw numbers in the Midwest and West:
If Cruz wins Indiana, Nebraska, Washington, South Dakota, and Montana, then merely splitting delegates evenly in California with Trump would be enough for Cruz to keep Trump some 75 delegates short.
If that happens, Trump could still secure the nomination on the first ballot at the convention in Cleveland — but the vast majority of the 150 to 200 unbound delegates are likely to vote for Cruz.
Check out a complete breakdown of the upcoming primaries at The Weekly Standard.