According to extensive data from Morning Consult, if the 2016 presidential election was held today the only Republican candidate who would beat Hillary Clinton in a head-to-head matchup is John Kasich.
Ohio Gov. John Kasich is the only candidate who could beat Clinton in November. Both Trump and Cruz would lose to Clinton by considerable margins in a head-to-head race, winning just 210 and 206 electoral college votes, respectively. By contrast, Kasich comfortably beats Clinton, racking up 304 electoral college votes to her 234.
The analysis is the first glimpse of how Clinton might perform against the remaining Republican candidates in every state. It uses the opinions of 44,000 registered voters, collected since January, plus a variety of characteristics in each state like age, gender, and President Obama’s approval rating, to determine what the results of a presidential election might look like now. About 20 percent of voters are undecided, but the maps below capture who wins a plurality in each state, and with that, the electoral college.
Kasich easily clears the 270 votes needed for the White House by winning a bloc of Midwest states that Republicans haven’t won since President George H.W. Bush was elected in 1988. Our analysis shows Kasich winning every state that Trump and Cruz win, but he also adds victories in Colorado, Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Clinton performs 3 to 10 percentage points better against Trump or Cruz in those states than against Kasich.
Unfortunately for Kasich, he doesn’t stand a chance at earning the nomination in July. Additionally, nearly 20 percent of registered voters said they are undecided about who they’d vote for between Clinton and either Trump, Cruz, or Kasich, so the election is still up for grabs.
Check out the hypothetical election maps at Morning Consult.