This is a turnout election, and that is why Donald Trump is going to win.
The dirty little secret of the 2008 and particularly the 2012 presidential elections is that they were effectively turnout elections. President Obama’s unprecedented ability to use micro-targeting and predictive analytics to identify and target people who connected with his message allowed him to focus his energies and resources on registering and turning out his voters rather than playing the normal game of attempting to appeal to the great middle.
2016 is no different, even though it feels that way to many Washington, D.C. based political “experts.”
In fact, the 2016 presidential election is the easiest to define in decades, pitting the nation’s Thurston and Muffys and the Silicon Valley nerds who hope to sit at their lunch table against Bubba and Bobbi Sue in a fight over who will control the country.
The clear definition of this battle comes as quite a shock to the Thurston and Muffys who have run the country non-stop since they took over with the election of George H.W. Bush. While issues like tax rates and cutting the size of government have been disputed in virtually every election with some differences in the growth of government based upon the outcome, more and more, those on both sides of the aisle who have been dependent upon Bubba and Bobbi Sue’s votes have grown discontented and downright dismissive of these voters.
Bill Clinton, who won his first term in the White House at least partially on the back of blue collar voters who couldn’t connect with Bush and his inability to negotiate a grocery line, recently derisively called his former fellow Bubbas, “rednecks” who he grew up with in Arkansas. And while Clinton spent the Vietnam War at Oxford University not inhaling, many of those same “rednecks” he now has no use for ended up walking through rice paddies and dying.
Yet, rather than going to the Vietnam Memorial Wall in D.C. and looking up the names of his former classmates and friends who paid the ultimate price in a country far, far away, Clinton dismisses their concerns about the state of America with a sneering pejorative.
This would not matter if a standard issue GOP candidate were on the ballot who gives lip service to the little guy while being more concerned with the brie and wine crowd, but with Trump as the GOP nominee, it has crystalized the divide. Shockingly, it is not the Marxist dialectic defined haves versus have nots, but instead a battle between those who are cultural Americans and those who are globalists. And Trump is going to win because there are a lot more voters in America who follow NASCAR, watch football and go to church, than there are those who don’t. And they have come to realize that they have been played for fools by those to whom they entrusted their country.
Reports from those talking directly to blue collar registered voters with a low propensity to turnout in previous elections shows a shocking uniformity in their newly found commitment to vote.
Having had sand kicked in their faces by the politicians with bank bailouts, bad trade deals, attacks on their ability to freely exercise their religious beliefs, illegal immigration, Benghazi, Hillary’s abject corruption, videos of Islamic State cutting off the heads of Christians and the promise by Clinton to import up to a million more people from countries where jihad is an art form, Bubba and Bobbi Sue are going to vote to restore America.
In a turnout election, that is very, very bad news for those who seek to protect the status quo, but it is very, very good news for liberty, the Constitution and the United States of America.
You see, to paraphrase George Bailey’s contempt for Mr. Potter in “It’s a Wonderful Life”, in America the Bubbas and Bobbi Sues are the ones who do a majority of the living and dying in America. They are the ones who go to work every day in the hope that their sons and daughters have a better future. And they are the ones who pay the taxes, fight the wars and provide the fabric of American life.
And they are tired of being the butt of Hollywood’s jokes, and the victim of Washington, D.C. politicians who trade their jobs and futures away in deals designed to make multi-national corporations happy.
And that is why Donald Trump will be elected President on Nov. 8, because Bubba and Bobbi Sue are mad as hell and they aren’t going to take it anymore.